3 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 44.5)
The Chiefs (13-6) are the 3-seed and just upset the Bills 27-24 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Ravens (14-4) are the 1-seed and just crushed the Texans 34-10 in the Divisional Round, covering as 10.5-point home favorites.This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, we Baltimore briefly dip down to -3. Since that time, we’ve seen the line steadily steam back toward the Ravens, pushing Baltimore up to -4 and even -4.5 across the market. Essentially, late movement is breaking toward the Ravens laying the points at home. Baltimore is receiving 50% of bets but 61% of money, signaling an undecided public but also respected “low bets, higher dollars” in favor of the Ravens. Home favorites are 19-15 ATS (56%) in the Conference Championship round since 2004, including 25-9 straight up (74%).
However, the elephant in the room is Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ star quarterback is 9-1 ATS (90%) as a dog in his career. Mahomes won outright as a dog last week in Buffalo and also won last year’s Super Bowl outright as a 1.5-point dog against the Eagles. Playoff dogs are 6-4 ATS (60%) this postseason and 49-34 ATS (59%) since 2017. Mahomes is 3-1 straight up against Lamar Jackson. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 60% ATS to the road team historically. Now that we’ve reached +4.5 with the hook, the Chiefs are in a prime teaser spot (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
The total has been on the move as well. It opened at 45.5, fell as low as 44 and has since risen back to 44.5. However, many shops are juicing up the under 44.5 to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible move back down to 44.5. The hook could be critical if we see a 24-20 type score. The public is pounding the over (77%). However, the under is only receiving 23% of bets but 57% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Weather could play a factor, as the forecast calls for low 40s with 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
Player Prop to Consider: Travis Kelce Over 63.5 receiving yards (-115). This prop opened at 62.5 and has risen to 63.5, signaling some respected over action. Kelce has gone over this number in both playoff games, raking in 7 catches for 71 yards against Miami and 5 catches for 75 yards against Buffalo. He is tied with Rashee Rice for the most targets in the postseason (16).
6:30 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 51.5)
The Lions (14-5) are the 3-seed and just took down the Buccaneers 31-23 in the Divisional Round, covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (13-5) are the 1-seed and just eked by the Packers 24-21 in the Divisional Round but did not cover as 10-point home favorites.This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is too high and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with the Cinderella Lions. However, despite 69% of bets taking Detroit and the points, we’ve seen this line remain frozen at 49ers -7 and even rise to 49ers -7.5. This signals some sharp “fade the trendy dog” value on San Francisco laying the points in a rare contrarian favorite spot. San Francisco is only receiving 31% of bets but 49% of money, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
However, complicating this handicap is all the various system matches on Detroit. The Lions 36-17 ATS (68%) under Dan Campbell, including 22-10 ATS (69%) as a dog and 11-4 ATS (73%) as a dog of 6-points or more. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Lions, are 4-2 ATS (67%) this postseason and 38-20 ATS (66%) since 2017. Detroit also has value as a “dog who can score,” as the Lions average roughly 27 PPG, thereby keeping pace and opening up the opportunity for a backdoor cover, especially if they are receiving the hook (+7.5). San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
Sharps seem to be leaning over, as the total has risen from 50.5 to 51.5 over the past few days. Some books are even up to 52. The over is receiving 57% of bets and 59% of money. Both of these offences rank in the top 5 in scoring (DET 27 PPG, SF 29 PPG). The weather in Santa Clara is perfect, with a forecast of 70 degrees, partly cloudy skies, 2 MPH winds and zero precipitation. The over is 22-13 (63%) in the AFC and NFC Championship games since 2004.
Player Prop(s) to Consider: George Kittle over 58.5 receiving yards (-120). Kittle went over this number against the Packers, finishing with 4 catches for 81 yards. Detroit just gave up 65 receiving yards to the Bucs’ tight end Cade Otton has week.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 23.5 receiving yards (-120). Gibbs has gone over this number in both postseason games, catching 4 passes for 40 yards against the Bucs and catching 4 passes for 43 yards against the Rams.
